Paired comparison models with age effects modeled as piecewise quadratic splines

We propose new models for analyzing pairwise comparison data, such as that relating to sports. We focus on changes in players’ strengths and the prediction of future results. Our models are based on the Thurstone-Mosteller and Bradley–Terry models, and make use of the time variation in the parameters. Furthermore, we apply our models to data from the Japanese traditional sport sumo, and analyze this data. The proposed models perform better than the standard Thurstone-Mosteller and Bradley–Terry models according to both the Akaike information criterion and the Brier score. We compare the proposed models in detail by focusing on individual sumo wrestlers.     

Financing the sustainable management of Rwanda's protected areas

Rwanda's Nyungwe National Park is a biodiversity hotspot with the most endemic species in the ecoregion and the highest number of threatened species internationally. Nyungwe supplies critical ecosystem services to the Rwandan population including water provisioning and tourism services. Tourism in the Park has strong potential for financing enhanced visitor experiences and the sustainable management of the Park. This paper explores quantitatively the economic impacts of adjustment in Park visitation fees and tourism demand as a source of revenues to improve Park tourism opportunities and ongoing operations and maintenance. The methods developed in this paper are novel in integrating the results of stated preference techniques with a regional computable general equilibrium modelling approach to capture multisectoral, direct, indirect and induced impacts. Such methods have strong potential for assessing revenue generation alternatives in other contexts where park managers are faced with the need to generate additional revenue for sustainable park management while facing diminishing budget allocations. Results of this analysis demonstrate that adjustment of Park fees has a relatively small impact on the regional economy and well-being when compared with a strategy aimed at generating increased tourism demand through investment in improving the visitor experience at Nyungwe National Park.     

管理层权力与或有事项信息披露——基于环境不确定性的调节效应研究

基于2003—2016年我国A股上市公司的经验数据，以企业表内列报的预计负债金额与表外附注中披露的或有事项频数为考察对象，实证检验了管理层权力对或有事项信息披露的影响。研究发现，管理层权力与表内列报的或有事项信息显著负相关，而与表外披露的或有事项信息显著正相关；进一步发现，随着环境不确定性的增加，管理层权力对企业表内预计负债列报的负向影响显著增强，而对表外或有事项披露的正向影响明显减弱。在当前外部环境瞬息万变、内部治理机制弱化的背景下，管理层可能会利用其控制权操控或有事项信息的披露方式，自我服务偏好明显。     

基于供应链管理的供应商选择问题初探

在现阶段的发展过程中,现代化发展已经成为企业未来发展的基本方向。作为企业实现现代化发展的关键环节,供应链的管理工作在整个企业运行过程中起到了举足轻重的作用。伴随着供应链管理的发展,供应商的选择问题越来越多,选择要点和选择内容不断丰富,并逐渐发展成为企业采购过程中所有采购员共同面对的问题。根据企业的发展现状和运营情况,选择更合适更合理的采购方案和供货商,并遵循行业准则来制定企业采购规则。     

执法监测中正确使用环境标准初探

经过近四十年的发展和完善,我国的环境标准已形成了“两级五类”的完整体系。基层监测人员在执法监测中对环境标准的选择,要结合环境影响批复和污染工艺、排放去向进行综合考虑。在排污许可证上载明的污染物排放浓度与排放标准中规定的浓度限值不一致的情况下,应慎重选取排放标准规定的浓度限值。使用环境标准的基本原则是地方标准优先于国家标准,行业标准优先于综合标准,新标准优先于旧标准,地方政府文件不具有标准效力。     

中国农业竞争力提升视域下的小农户发展

目前我国农业发展面临一个急需破解的重大悖论：如何在发展小农户的基础上提升中国农业竞争力。论文提出中国特色农业竞争力具有三重内涵：以生产竞争力为基本要求，以安全竞争力为战略底线，以市场竞争力为主攻方向。小农户发展对于提升中国农业竞争力有重要作用，这体现于小农户发展有助于提升农业生产竞争力、安全竞争力和市场竞争力并推动提升机制之间联动。因此，提升中国农业竞争力必须促进小农户发展，并且小农户发展有提升农业竞争力的可能性，但当前小农户发展受到内外条件的约束。据此，本文提出以下政策建议：完善政府支持、发挥小农户主体作用、发展和推广农业科技和物质装备以及将小农户融入产业链。     

GIS-based fuzzy multi-criteria approach for optimal site selection of fire stations in Istanbul,Turkey

Fire stations play a central role in protection and response activities as part of emergency management services in cases of fire incidences. With the rising urban populations and city expansions, the demand for more fire services resultantly increases. It then becomes critical to effectively plan the location of emergency facilities to adequately service the population and ensure the protection of lives and infrastructure. This study, therefore proposes the use of the fuzzy extension of the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method of Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), hence called fuzzy AHP, integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to optimally site new fire stations for the case of Istanbul region. This proposed fuzzy approach simulates the subjective expert judgements for the preferences of the six criteria assessed for fire station suitability mapping and thereby accounted for the uncertainty of crisp comparison values via triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). The criteria weights evaluated from this procedure were used in a weighted overlay analysis of the reclassified criteria map layers in ArcGIS to generate a fire station suitability map. These resultant fuzzy AHP criteria weights were validated using another MCDM technique, called Best-Worst Method (BWM) and found to be comparable and consistent. The criteria that had the strongest influence on the selection of sites for fire stations were identified to be: the density of hazardous material facilities (DHM), a high population density (HPD) and proximity to main roads (PMR) with associated weights of 33.3%, 24.4% and 15.2%, respectively. Based on a thorough assessment within the areas represented by class values ranging from 3 to 5 on the suitability map, a total of 34 new fire station sites were selected complementing the existing 121 fire stations. Further, a prioritization analysis from low, medium to high, was performed to plan the phases for the construction of new fire stations in view of competing budgetary needs and resource constraints. The methodology to achieve this was proposed and modelled for enhancing the decision-making process in urban fire station site selection studies.     

The construction of a composite index for general satisfaction in Turkey and the investigation of its determinants

The goal of public enterprises is to increase the wealth and happiness of individuals. This target lets them make the investment to fulfill these expectations. However, not all citizens in a country might have the same opportunities. This case requires comparing citizens who live in cities with regard to satisfaction levels. This study consists of two stages. In the first stage, a composite index called the General Satisfaction Index (GSI), which aims to explain the satisfaction levels of citizens living in cities, is obtained by using the Benefit of the Doubt method. Contrary to the previous studies, the satisfaction indicators based on the emotions and senses of citizens are used to construct a composite index. Satisfaction indicators’ contribution to GSI is ensured using the minimum weights. In the second stage of this study, socioeconomic determinants of GSI are investigated in both countrywide and regions by using regularized regression methods. In the result of the regression analyze, it is confirmed that there are different socioeconomic determinants of satisfaction levels for countrywide and each region. For this reason, it is proposed that policymakers should follow different politicizes in each region to increase the satisfaction levels of citizens in the country.     

大数据背景下区域木材物流配送中心选址

指出了我国木材物流存在的主要问题以及解决方案,结合大数据技术,利用遗传算法进行木材物流配送中心的选址,建立了数学模型并进行了案例分析,以达到对木材物流成本和服务的优化。     

农村集体经济组织与农民专业合作社协同扶贫模式创新:重庆例证

农村集体经济组织和农民专业合作社是与农民联系较为紧密的两类经济组织,是贫困地区打赢脱贫攻坚战的重要内生性力量。但在实践中,受农村集体经济组织市场主体地位不明确、承担市场经营风险能力弱及农民专业合作社总体规模偏小、脱贫带动力不强等因素影响,两类主体的扶贫作用都未能得到充分发挥。重庆市城口县是国家扶贫开发工作重点县,在近年来的脱贫攻坚中,一方面普遍性地成立了新型农村集体经济组织,作为承接相关政府部门扶贫资源、开展村集体资产运营管理的平台;另一方面通过平等协商将村集体经济组织承接的扶贫资源以入股方式投入当地运行规范、实力较强的农民专业合作社,以获取相对稳定的分红收益,并优先用于增加贫困户收入。该模式既为村“两委”参与市场活动和承接政府扶贫资源提供了有效载体,又较好地保证了农民专业合作社等市场主体的经营自主权,有利于构建激励兼容、多方共赢的长效扶贫机制,是有镜鉴价值的扶贫模式创新。